"CO₂ or Purchasing Power – We’ll Have to Choose"

The facts are clear: CO₂ is hurting our planet — and it’s only getting worse. Each report from the IPCC reveals an even more alarming picture than the last. Every summer brings new records for heat, wildfires, and floods. And every year, CO₂ emissions continue to exceed targets, while we need a reduction of 8% per year to reach net zero by 2050.

The gap between intention and reality is immense: over the past 10 years, global CO₂ emissions have increased by 1.5% annually — whereas we need a decrease of 7–8% per year to hit our climate targets. That gap alone equals seven times France’s annual emissions. At this pace, the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C is no longer realistic. We should prepare for 2–3°C of warming — and fight tooth and nail to avoid it.

We’re suffering. The situation is not under control. We’re aware, we’re full of good intentions, and technology has made great strides — but we’re not succeeding. So, where is the problem?

A few key facts that help explain the diagnosis:

– In the past 10 years, the world has spent about 0.4% of its GDP (~$3,500bn/year — roughly equal to France’s GDP) on clean energy development… and yet emissions continue to rise.
– Population and GDP growth naturally generate about 1.5% more CO₂ each year. Efforts must be judged not relative to current emissions, but against this strong underlying trend. Global energy demand is expected to increase by 50% by 2050.
– Let’s be humble in France. Our apparent emissions have dropped by 20% in 20 years — largely due to outsourcing industries to countries that produce 5 to 10 times more CO₂ for the same output. Adjusted for this, our emissions would have increased despite genuine efforts.
– The government’s ambitious Citizens’ Convention for Climate produced 150 proposals. Yet despite major backing from the executive, its members now feel their work was largely ignored, calling the government’s responses insufficient and fragmented.

Unless we resort to dangerous denial or shift responsibility onto others and the future, the real question is: What should we do, and how?

The real answers must be built on a few unavoidable principles:

1. Individual Awareness

The above facts must be known — again and again — and we must each begin to measure our personal CO₂ footprint. If the average French person emits 8 tonnes of CO₂ per year, how are we progressing, personally, rather than expecting government, technology, or “others” to solve it?

2. Solidarity and Collective Responsibility

Even if France emitted zero CO₂, global emissions would still rise. So what collective actions can we take?

We need a brave and honest reckoning: we’re living in denial, or worse — a suicidal delusion — if we think energy, raw materials, and money are infinite resources. We consume in six months what the planet can renew in a year. Many critical raw materials will run out before the end of the century.

One euro spent in developing countries is far more effective than at home. How can we export our know-how and support truly sustainable development?

CO₂ pricing and rules must be global. But we should start with wealthy nations — it’s indecent to ask those with nothing to sacrifice when we’ve burned fossil fuels freely to achieve our current standard of living.

Cutting CO₂ will come at a cost — to our standard of living. It will create jobs, yes — but not more consumption. It’s doable for those with enough, but painful for those already struggling. Without energy solidarity, there is no solution.

3. Acceptance of Massive Effort

As economist Jean Pisani-Ferry put it: “The energy transition will be brutal.” Public spending will need to exceed 3% of GDP (it’s 0.3% today). Rich countries must contribute more — all while the main social demand remains… greater purchasing power.

But money alone won’t be enough. Technology will not do it all. Without sobriety — i.e., consuming less — we will fail. Some call this “degrowth,” an uncomfortable term. But we can improve quality of life without growing GDP, or grow a GDP based on less material and energy input.

This challenge is central: the costs and sacrifices are immediate, while the benefits will only appear in 30–50 years. Democracies aren’t good at long-term sacrifices. China, with its planning logic, does better — though it’s not necessarily a model we want to follow.

With the rise of variable renewables, we must also adapt to new constraints in how we consume energy and secure supply.

4. Honesty and Pragmatism

This may be the hardest principle. It's astounding how a technical issue like energy and CO₂ is so dogmatised, leading to poor decisions.

When I tried writing this article with political and business leaders, I heard the same thing every time: “It’s good, but my party/organisation can’t say that…”

Some of the most harmful confusions include:

The false debate of nuclear vs CO₂

Blind faith in technology as a sole saviour

The myth of a “non-punitive” ecology

Misguided investments due to lobbying — and our own complicity in hoping tech will save us so we don’t have to change

Dogmas like:

Renewables at all costs, regardless of results

Markets that only account for short-term marginal costs, not long-term system optimisation

Hydrogen touted as a clean fuel, when it’s just an energy carrier, often inefficient and costly

Pragmatism demands transitions: from coal to gas, then from grey to green gas, etc.

Universal Recommendations

Let’s have the courage to say it will be difficult. We need education — not just about the climate, but about actions and responsibility.

We must consume less. That’s a revolution. Not just efficiency — but sobriety.

We need a high CO₂ price, and unified global standards for measuring CO₂ impact. Every major policy decision should be publicly ranked for CO₂ effectiveness. Misguided investments must stop.

50% of final energy must become electric (vs 17% now). We need to electrify more, and urgently modernise nuclear power — especially SMRs and low-waste innovations — alongside renewables.

Global and national solidarity must drive support for emerging countries to adopt the best technologies — without repeating our old mistakes.

We must act now. By 2030, the structure of our society will lock in 90% of the CO₂ we emit in 2050. The future is being built today.

And in France?

France is among the most CO₂-efficient developed nations. We should be proud, protect that advantage, and leverage it internationally. This performance is thanks to our low-carbon electricity grid — giving us a 30% CO₂ edge over Germany.

But all is not well:

Poorly designed markets made electricity prices spike in 2021 due to gas and CO₂ costs — even though our electricity comes from neither.

Investing €130 billion into France’s multi-year energy plan (PPE) for almost no CO₂ impact is absurd, when the same amount in building efficiency could cut national CO₂ emissions by 20%.

Our nuclear fleet is an asset. We must urgently roll out next-generation reactors.

Only 24% of France’s energy use is electric — this must rise.

We must repatriate heavy industries to reduce global CO₂. Example: aluminium made in China emits 10× more CO₂ than in France — where electricity is cleaner and already in surplus.

Political leadership must become more competent, more educational, more strategic — and independent from national utilities like EDF.

Let’s help our political leaders make bold, courageous decisions. Because if we, as citizens, refuse to make sacrifices — then there’s nothing they can do.

The time is now.

– Olivier Baud